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As had been widely expected, PLO Chief and Fatah candidate Mahmoud Abbas won the Palestinian elections which took place on Sunday, thus succeeding the late Yasser Arafat as President of the Palestinian Authority.

According to semi-final results announced by the Palestinian Central Election Committee in Ramallah Monday, Abbas won slightly over 62% of the 775,146 ballots cast at some 2800 polling stations throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

 

Abbas's closest challenger, the independent center-leftist candidate Mustafa Barghouthi, came second, receiving 153,516 votes, or 19.8% of the total cast ballots.

The remaining 18%, or so, of the votes went to five other candidates, as follows:

 

Bassam Salhi of the Palestine People's Party (PPP), with 20844 votes or 2.9%; Taysir Khalid of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLD), with 27118 votes or 3.5%.

 

Abdul Halim al Ashqar, the independent Islamist candidate, who is under house arrest in the US for allegedly supporting Hamas, received 20774 or 2.68%; Abdul Karim Shbeir of Gaza, received 5874 votes or 0.86%; and, finally, Sayed Baraka, also based in Gaza, who received 9809 votes or 1.27% per cent of the total votes.

Lesser than expected

Fatah had hoped Abbas would win close to 70% of the votes, which then would give him a clear mandate to negotiate with Israel a possible final status peace settlement.

 

Moreover, a massive victory as such would greatly enhance the status and image of the movement in the run-up to the upcoming local and parliamentary elections, especially after Fatah's relatively modest achievements in recent municipal elections.

 

In fact, a thorough analysis of the election results suggests that Abbas's victory is not really as big as initially thought for the following reasons:

 

It is amply clear by now that Hamas's decision to boycott of the elections had significantly impacted the voter turnout despite claims and denials to the contrary.

 

The PA made desperate last-minute efforts to increase the turnout, first by extending the voting time by two additional hours and second by allowing non-registered voters to cast their votes.

However, this still couldn't blur the fact that over 50% of eligible voters (registered and non-registered) opted to boycott the elections or vote for Islamist or Quasi-Islamist candidates.

 

Indeed, of the estimated 1.120,000 million registered voters, only 772500 (or 62%) actually participated in the election. This means that up to 38% of registered voters chose to stay home rather than participate in the elections.

In addition, it is noted that of those who participated in the election on Sunday, over 5% gave their votes to Islamist or quasi-Islamist candidates, while nearly 7% cast blank or invalid ballots. This suggests that tens of thousands of Hamas supporter and sympathizers did not heed the call to boycott the elections but opted instead to vote for the two Gaza-based independents and Abdul Halim al Ashqar, (he received 20774 votes).

 

When comparing these figures to the estimated 1.5 million voter population ( a conservative estimate), e.g. those above the age of 18 years, it becomes clear that no more than 33% of Palestinian eligible voters gave their votes to Abbas.

 

For his part, Mustafa Barghouthi won 153,516 votes or 19.8% out of the 775,146 ballots cast Sunday. In proportion to the registered voter population, this percentage shrinks to 13.9% and when further compared to the overall eligible voter population (1.5 million), the percentage shrinks further to 10.2%.

 

Barghouthi put up a very impressive and probably expensive campaign, raising questions about the sources of his finance.

However, it is clearly that Barghouthi, a community activist who for many years has been at the forefront of the non-violent but effective resistance to Israeli occupation, including protests against the repugnant separation wall, is satisfied at , if not gratified by, his unexpectedly good performance.

 

In several Televised interviews Monday, Barghouthi proclaimed his movement, al Mubadara or Initiative, as the Second force at the Palestinian political arena, suggesting that Hamas was retreating to a third place.

 

However, this proclamation seems to be premature at best and unrealistic at worst.

 

First, many of those who supported for Barghouthi didn't really subscribe to his leftist or "social-democratic" ideology (he was a former leader of the Palestinian Communist Party). Their attraction to him seems to have been a reflection with their distrust of Abbas than with any sudden infatuation with the leftist-socialist ideology.

Second, it is noted that Barghouthi supporters came from a large diverse myriad of people with diverse ideological backgrounds, including former Communists, disgruntled Fatah supporters, PFLP followers and many ordinary people who were attracted by his personal charisma rather than anything else.

 

Third, it is highly unlikely that Barghouthi's Mubadara will be able, at least in the foreseeable future, to unseat Hamas, a movement widely considered to be second-among-equals vis-à-vis Fatah in terms of popularity, from its present preeminence and prominence.

Indeed, Barghouthi's Mubadara performed very badly in the 23 December mayoral elections in some 26 Palestinian towns and villages.

There is no question that Barghothi's achievement in this election will encourage him to take part rather forcefully in the upcoming municipal and parliamentary elections, slated to take place in April and July respectively.

However, his hopes for becoming a second or even third force, of the strength of Fatah and Hamas, seem to have a strong component of wishful thinking.

 

No open-ended mandate

 

Undoubtedly, Abbas's respectable victory in Sunday's presidential election has given him a certain mandate to transform his election platform and agenda into reality.This includes his pledges to improve the living conditions of ordinary Palestinians, the bulk of whom have fallen prey to poverty and unemployment, as well fighting the phenomenal corruption permeating through the entire PA apparatus.

Palestinians also expect Abu Mazen to end the "anarchy" emanating from the virtual absence of law and order in much of the occupied territories.

Above all, many ordinary Palestinians, tormented by more than four years of harsh Israeli repression, expect Abu Mazen to try to reach a mutual cease-fire between Palestinian resistance groups, including Hamas, and Israel, which could allow them to reclaim at least a semblance of normal life.

 

Abbas is likely to find Hamas and other Palestinian resistance groups more forthcoming and more cooperative in the realization of such tasks.

However, It is unlikely that Abbas's generally modest victory will grant him an open-ended mandate to compromise on the core political issues, like Jerusalem and the right of return for Palestinian refugees, over which all Palestinians have developed a solemn consensus.

Hence, the vital question on the minds of most Palestinians will be "will Abbas remain faithful to his pledges, promises and undertakings which he made during his election campaign, or will he succumb to American pressure to abandon them? Time will tell.