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Following the execution of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein,
almost four years after the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of
Iraq, the Middle East stands at a crossroads.
The execution of Saddam may well create more problems than it
could possibly solve. Despite the formation of a permanent
national government, Iraq has been reduced to a state of chaos and
sectarian violence.
The execution is unlikely to bring stability to the country, or
credibility to the government. That is after the situation in the
country hit an all-time low this year.
The security situation took a dramatic turn for the worse in
February, when the bombing of a Shia religious shrine by unknown
perpetrators in the city of Samarra triggered a wave of sectarian
violence that has continued to rage unabated. The formation of a
permanent government in May -- after months of sectarian wrangling
between Sunni, Shia and Kurdish groups -- did little to stop the
bloodletting.
These dismal circumstances continued on throughout the year, which
saw hundreds of thousands of Sunnis and Shias fleeing their homes
to traditional ethnic heartlands in the middle and south of the
country respectively. While insurgent attacks on U.S.-led
coalition troops waxed and waned, tit-for-tat sectarian killings
only increased in number and intensity.
According to accounts by humanitarian agencies, roughly 1.6
million Iraqis have been displaced -- mostly as a result of
confessional violence -- since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. By the
end of 2006, daily civilian death tolls in both Sunni and Shia
areas had reached unprecedented levels, prompting many observers
to describe the conflict as a full-fledged civil war.
Although the Cairo-based Arab League continues to host regular
'Iraq reconciliation' conferences in hopes of stopping the
bloodshed, the prospects for peaceful settlement in the short term
appear more distant than ever. By late December, embattled U.S.
President George W. Bush was openly considering the deployment of
an additional 20,000 troops to join the 141,000 currently
stationed in the war-torn country.
And the death of Saddam Hussein after a process that left many
unconvinced about its legality and independence, can inflame the
situation in an already tense Middle East.
The situation in the occupied Palestinian territories -- facing
international sanctions, longstanding conflict with Israel and
internecine fighting -- has never been worse. Lebanon hovers on
the brink of civil war, pitting an empowered Shia-led opposition
bloc against the leadership in Beirut.
Meanwhile, key U.S. allies in the region Egypt, Saudi Arabia and
Jordan maintained their time-honoured closeness to Washington,
despite popular misgivings about U.S. policies. As for Syria and
Persian Iran, the two so-called 'rogue states' have remained under
enormous international pressure led by the United States, which
continues to play up the threat of a regional Shia axis.
Despite a degree of optimism following a 2005 summit between
Palestinian and Israeli leaders, the perennial Middle East
conflict showed little sign of letting up this year, which began
with the victory of Islamist party Hamas in Palestinian
parliamentary elections.
Since its formation in March, however, the Hamas-led government
has been subject to crushing international sanctions due to its
refusal to recognise Israel in the absence of reciprocal
concessions. Now in its tenth month, the U.S. and EU led embargo
has devastated the Palestinian economy and badly hindered the
ability of the government to pay salaries.
As the year drew to a close, the government, headed by Prime
Minister Ismail Haniya, launched talks with the rival Fatah party
in hopes of forging a unity government more palatable to Israel's
sanction-wielding patrons. By mid-December, however, talks had
broken down, with each side blaming the other for the impasse.
Calls by Fatah-affiliated Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on
Dec. 18 for fresh parliamentary elections further alienated Hamas,
which had been the clear-cut winner in January races. The dispute
quickly erupted into open violence, with a series of tit-for-tat
killings in late December -- mostly by unknown assailants --
prompting open speculation that inter-Palestinian civil war was
round the corner.
The situation is no less dire on the Israel-Palestine front.
Following five months of Israeli military incursions in the Gaza
Strip in which hundreds of Palestinians were killed, a shaky truce
was finally declared in late November. Nevertheless, hostilities
remain an almost daily occurrence, with Tel Aviv maintaining its
policy of "targeted killings" against wanted militants while armed
Palestinian groups fire home-made Qassam missiles at Israeli
targets from the Gaza Strip.
By the year end, attempts to broker a prisoner swap between the
antagonists, involving the exchange of several hundred Palestinian
prisoners for an Israeli corporal captured by militants in June,
had come to nothing.
Middle Eastern capitals are no less distressed about the current
state of affairs in Lebanon, where a full-scale war this summer
rocked the regional balance of power.
Little more than a year after the Syrian military withdrawal from
the country, open war broke out between Israel and the Shia
guerilla group Hezbollah after the latter's capture of two Israeli
soldiers in mid-July. As the conflict escalated, with both sides
trading missile barrages on an almost daily basis, the
international community -- with the notable exception of the
United States and Britain -- called for an immediate cessation of
hostilities.
By the time a UN-backed ceasefire finally came into effect in
mid-August, more than 1,400 people had been killed, the majority
of them Lebanese civilians. Much of southern Lebanon, meanwhile,
was in ruins as a result of ferocious Israeli bombardments.
Despite the imposition of a truce, Tel Aviv maintained a naval
blockade of Lebanon until early September. Shortly afterwards, UN
peacekeepers were deployed along the country's volatile southern
border, in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701
(which also stipulated the eventual disarmament of Hezbollah).
The conflict served to split Lebanese public opinion, already
deeply divided since the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese
prime minister Rafik al-Hariri. Despite repeated protestations of
innocence from Damascus, the Beirut government was quick to blame
Syria, a primary backer of Hezbollah, for the murder.
Battle lines were quickly drawn, pitting Saad Hariri, son of the
late prime minister, against the Hezbollah-led opposition. In
early December, flush with confidence after its unexpected show of
military prowess, Hezbollah and its Christian allies launched a
series of popular demonstrations against the U.S.-backed Beirut
government.
With crowds reportedly numbering in the hundreds of thousands
swarming the capital, the Hezbollah-led opposition has vowed to
keep the pressure on until the government meets their demands for
greater political representation. Contentiously, Hezbollah leader
Hasan Nasrallah has also accused the Beirut government of
colluding with Israel in the recent war.
Mediation efforts are being led by Arab League Secretary-General
Amr Moussa, who has called on both sides to negotiate a
power-sharing arrangement. But as the year drew to a close,
prospects of a mutually-acceptable agreement appeared increasingly
remote.
In Egypt, the most populous Arab country, 2006 saw the emergence
an empowered Islamist opposition controlling one-fifth of
parliament after unexpected victories in 2005 parliamentary
elections. Nevertheless, the ruling National Democratic Party
headed by longtime President Hosni Mubarak maintained more than
the two-thirds majority necessary to control legislation.
Pervasive reports of electoral fraud during the parliamentary
races also triggered a concerted push by the judicial branch of
government to achieve greater political independence. Following
the call of a handful of outspoken pro-reform judges, opposition
protestors took to the streets in May to demand electoral reform
and judicial independence from an authoritarian executive.
Despite continued opposition campaigning, however, an unpopular
Judicial Authority Law was pushed through the People's Assembly in
June. Critics say the new law will serve to keep the judiciary
under the firm control of the executive branch and restrict
judicial supervision over future elections.
In April, triple bomb attacks in the Red Sea resort town of Dahab,
which killed 18 people, including five foreign tourists, again
raised the specter of domestic terrorism. While government sources
ultimately attributed the attacks to a shadowy Islamic group known
as Al-Tawhid Wal-Jihad, official information about the group
remains sparse.
Days after the bombings, the government officially extended the
duration of the emergency law -- in place since the assassination
of former president Anwar Sadat in 1981 -- for another two years.
Despite pledges by Mubarak to make 2007 "the year of
constitutional reform", most opposition figures fear that promised
reforms will amount to little more than window dressing. Some
commentators have further suggested that proposed constitutional
changes are simply cover for behind-the-scenes political
machinations aimed at the eventual ascension of Gamal Mubarak, the
president's 43 year-old son, to the presidency.
The geopolitical standing of Syria, a primary supporter of
Hezbollah, was bolstered by the Shia militia's strong military
showing in its summer war with Israel. Nevertheless, Damascus
continues to face enormous international pressure led by
Washington, which accuses Syria of standing behind the 2005 Hariri
assassination in Lebanon.
In an effort to cooperate, Damascus
established diplomatic relations with the pro-U.S. government in
Baghdad in December (ending an era of mutual boycott dating from
the 1980s) and agreed to joint security arrangements along its 600
km shared border with Iraq. Pressing its advantage, Syria has also
expressed its readiness to negotiate the issue of the Golan
Heights captured by Israel in 1967 with Tel Aviv.
December also saw the release of the
much-trumpeted Baker-Hamilton report in the U.S., which counseled
greater diplomatic engagement with Damascus. If Syria hopes to
realign its diplomatic orientation towards dialogue with
Washington, however, it will have to distance itself from its ally
Iran, currently facing UN Security Council-imposed sanctions for
refusing to suspend its nuclear programme.
The states of the Gulf, meanwhile, maintained their gradualist
approach to democracy, holding a handful of modest but significant
elections this year.
In June Kuwaiti women voted for the first time in parliamentary
elections. Although major gains were made by Islamist-oriented
reformists, female candidates failed to win any seats, despite the
fact that women represented a reported 57 percent of the
electorate.
In September, incumbent Yemeni President Ali
Abdullah Saleh, who has ruled the country since its reunification
in 1990, handily defeated his opponent from an opposition
coalition. Municipal elections held the same day were marred by
violence, however, including the killing of an opposition
candidate.
December, finally, saw two more elections in
the Gulf: national assembly races in Bahrain and first-ever
elections for one half of an advisory council in the United Arab
Emirates, all of whose members had previously been appointed. |