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Next Monday, Arab foreign
ministers will meet in Cairo for their regular autumn gathering that is
likely to be preoccupied with Palestinian developments: the fortunes of
ongoing Palestinian-Israeli negotiations over a final status agreement
(or simply the parameters thereof) and the prospects of containing the
inter-Palestinian feud between Fatah and Hamas. For the moment, full
reconciliation appears all but impossible.
No major decisions are
expected out of the ministerial meeting. It is left entirely to the
Palestinian Authority (PA) under Mahmoud Abbas -- with some Arab
influence, especially from Cairo and Riyadh -- to decide whether or not
to accept a deal that is being offered by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert for a final settlement. This deal excludes settlement on East
Jerusalem or a formula to determine the right of return and/or
compensation for millions of Palestinian refugees.
Arab diplomats in Cairo
appear unconcerned with the detail of ongoing negotiations. The
overriding tone is that Arab governments would support whatever Abbas
would agree to, provided that it is not too embarrassing in terms of
giving up control over Muslim sites in East Jerusalem.
The consent and support of
Egypt and Saudi Arabia (some refer to Syria) is also considered helpful
in garnering a semblance of Arab support for a deal that the Americans
are pushing to conclude between Abbas and Olmert before Olmert exits
office and US President George W Bush departs the White House.
Arab delegations are
expecting to get a comprehensive -- if not detailed -- briefing from the
Palestinian delegation to the ministerial meeting. The most important
thing that Arab officials are keen to learn is whether or not the PA is
excluding a final status agreement before the end of this year. The
"What next?" question to a yes or a no answer seems to be the concern of
a limited Arab circle (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Qatar and the
secretariat of the Arab League), rather than a collective Arab concern.
On the fringe of the Cairo
ministerial meetings, the head of the Palestinian delegation, Arab
League Secretary-General Amr Moussa and the foreign ministers of Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Qatar will likely hold parallel and
collective meetings to examine the nature and tempo of diplomatic moves
that should follow the seemingly inevitable failure of final status
talks. According to one Arab diplomat, the Palestinian delegation will
likely ask for a few more weeks -- to the beginning of October -- before
it declares the status of the negotiations with Israel. Concerned Arab
capitals -- including Damascus, that is now focussed on its own
exploratory talks with Israel -- are likely to agree.
Egypt, however, is expected to propose -- with the support of Saudi
Arabia -- political support for Abbas should he decide that no deal is
attainable. In the eyes of Cairo, the failure of Abbas to conclude final
status parameters could be construed by the Palestinian people and other
Arabs as an announced failure of the negotiations option. This, Cairo
fears, could play into the hands of Hamas, that has for long been
forecasting the failure of negotiations and advocating direct resistance
to Israeli occupation. The reinforcement of this view is the last thing
Cairo wants to see.
The kind of support that
Cairo seems set to call on Arab countries to provide to Abbas includes
financial assistance to be administered by the Palestinian leader, a
show of flexibility and support from the international community,
including the European Union, which Egypt would call on Arab countries
to garner during the UN General Assembly meetings in New York later this
month, and cutting political and financial support for Hamas.
Egypt is already frustrated
with the reluctance of Hamas to show flexibility in completing the
prisoners swap deal that it has been negotiating for close to 18 months,
to allow for the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit captured by an
Islamist resistance group loyal to Hamas in return for the release of a
few hundred Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. Egypt is also wary
of Hamas's mobilisation in the Gaza Strip, encouraging the masses to
demonstrate at -- and maybe even break through -- the Rafah crossing
point that links the Strip with Egypt.
On reconciliation, the
Egyptian delegation to the ministerial meeting is set to brief Arab
countries on the outcome -- humble as it is -- of the "one-on-one" talks
that Cairo has been conducting with visiting delegations of Palestinian
factions. Sources say that the beginning of October is also expected to
be the deadline for a final decision on Egyptian mediation of the inter-
Palestinian feud.
Cairo, sources add, is
trying to secure the support of Palestinian factions for a set of moves
that would include: a symbolic return of the PA to Gaza in exchange for
the eventual re-opening of the Rafah crossing point; the handover of all
PA establishments in Gaza, especially the security apparatus, to an Arab
body that could be stationed in Gaza with consent of all Palestinian
parties; the presence of lightly armed Arab troops in Gaza to prevent
clashes between Fatah and Hamas activists; and the establishment of a
new unity government to take over from the current Ramallah government
of pro-Fatah Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and the Abbas-annulled
government of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh pending legislative and
presidential elections by the end of the year.
Under such conditions, Cairo
appears to believe, the situation in Gaza could be stabilised while the
Palestinians could use the next year to unify ranks as a new US
administration takes over and prepares itself to engage in settling the
Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet given the lack of confidence -- despite
apparent signs of good faith -- between Egypt and Hamas, and given the
still uncontained tension between Cairo and Damascus, whose influence on
Hamas is substantial, it is hard to see how Cairo's Gaza containment
could pass the foreign ministers' meeting or be implemented on the
ground.
Hamas has already refused
any suggestion of stationing Arab troops in Gaza. It is also open in its
attempt to replace Egyptian mediation on the prisoner swap deal with
European mediation, as well as to break the monopoly that Egypt claims
over reconciliation with a wider Arab contribution. Further, Hamas does
not seem convinced with symbolic Egyptian gestures, including the
opening of the Rafah crossing point earlier this week.
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