Recent Israeli procedures threaten the holy places and annoy both Christians and Muslims

There are checkpoints in Gaza and the West Bank
similar to those used during Apartheid in South Africa

Two symposiums concerning "What would happen if the peace process in the
Middle East failed?",

By Neveen Abdelhady-Amman

The second symposium was sponsored by the Moroccan Academy in Amman. The participants emphasized the role of the peace process and presented a proposal to realize peace and preserve the historical and cultural heritage of Jerusalem.

The First Session

Mr. Ahmed Sudqy Al:dajany, a member of the Moroccan Academy, talked about the reasons behind the failure of the peace process and the best way to achieve peace. He said that the Moroccan Academy should deal with the peace process in the capacity of a designer for the process itself, especially given the remark made by the American Secretary of State during the economic conference concerning the Middle East and North Africa, held on 12 November 1996, "It is quite risky to keep the situation as it is."

The Secretary of State also pointed out that some historical advantages should be preserved as a foundation for the Israeli-Palestinian agreements. In particular, both sides should resist terrorism and hold several meetings between Israel and Jordan through the diplomatic and business channels. There is a good chance to realize a comprehensive and permanent peace throughout the region, including Syria and Lebanon, similar to the Israeli-Egyptian agreement. The conference brought up the recent doubts concerning this possibility. He added that the American Government was uneasy about the actual situation that seemed to indicate some difficulties concerning the peace process, in particular Rabin's assassination and the recent riots, despite some positive aspects, namely the agreements signed by both sides against terrorism. Mr. Christopher added that the peace process was moving along fast enough, especially since the Palestinians were continuing to participate in negotiations and keeping their promises. However, the U.S. is still avoiding to deal with this matter on a multilateral level since there seems to be a good chance for further development in the light of the Madrid agreement. The real problem has been clear since the beginning of the process 5 years ago, that being the discontinued negotiations between Israel and Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinians. Both Israel and the Palestinians have been busy with the deployment forces in Hebron, a matter which has not been settled by the Labour Party. In addition, the Likud Party has asked for alterations to the whole agreement, which in itself has deterred the peace process as well as the deployment in the "B" and "C" areas. As a result, the agreements concerning Jerusalem, the refugees, the borders and the settlements have been delayed. He added that the obvious cause of the crisis delaying the execution of the agreements signed in Washington on 13 September 1993, in Cairo on 4 May 1994, and in Washington on 28 September 1995 is directly related to the announcement by Yitzhak Rabin that Israel would not follow a fixed timetable because there is no fixed holy date, thereby giving the Israelis room to procrastinate. In addition, the crisis becomes more obvious given the blatant Israeli violations taking place in Jerusalem, namely the deportation of its inhabitants, the desecration of both the Islamic and Christian Holy Places, and the general Judaization of the whole city.

He added that despite the repetition of the word "peace" (Al:salam), this term has not been applied. The Israeli forces have carried out several massacres, namely Al:haram Al:ibrahimi massacre, carried out by Goldstein on 25 February 1994 (Ramadan 1414 H), wherein nine Muslim worshippers were killed; the Qana massacre in Lebanon, which was carried out by "the Grapes of Wrath" in 1996 under the leadership of Peres, bringing to mind Rabin's deportation of 200,0000 Lebanese under the pretext of removing the Lebanese National Resistance in July 1993; and other massacres, too numerous to name them all, carried out by the settlers. These are clear indications of Israeli terrorism. The Israeli Border Guards, disguised in Arab traditional clothing, have harassed Palestinians, as well as killed some young men and tortured the captives and, in general, bothered labourers in order to increase threats of unemployment, poverty and starvation. He also talked about the water situation, emphasizing the issues of land and water. He wanted to know what had been achieved in these areas, especially given the termination of the Israeli occupation and the restoration of the Palestinian rights. However, several complications and contradictions regarding this aspect were brought to the forefront, in particular Israel still occupies 90% of the land and consumes 75% of the water resources, despite the signing of the Gaza-Jericho agreement in Cairo on 4 May 1994.

Apartheid Isolating Points

He added that the first charts included Gaza, Jericho and East Jerusalem, which makes up about 20% of occupied Palestine. Villages and cities have been classified as less than 3,000-people, 3,000-6,000-people, and more than 6,000 people. The Israeli settlements have been classified as lightly-populated and densely-populated. Several loop highways have also been divided between Israelis and Palestinians or for both with Palestinian checkpoints situated according to the Oslo treaty in 1993. The areas A, B and C have been divided according to the second Oslo treaty. Area A includes densely-populated cities, which were transferred to the PA after the deployment of the Israeli forces, area B would be controlled by Israelis and Palestinians, and area C would be controlled by Israel, except East Jerusalem, which had been marked in white. However, only 68% of Gaza (which is about 360 square kilometres), Jericho (which is about 57 square kilometres) and six cities (namely Jeneen, Tulkarem, Nablus, Qalqeelyeh, Ramallah and Bethlehem) have been controlled by the PA so far. This area comprises only 0.02% of the West Bank occupied in 1967, with 1.5 million people, in addition to another million people, could make use of 20% of the water resources. The most remarkable thing taking place right now is the web of highways consisting of hundreds of kilometres surrounding the settlements to be used by the Israelis and the Arabs when moving from one village to another. Thousands of dunums were confiscated by the Israelis and thousands of trees were destroyed in the process of constructing these highways, designed to meet Israeli security needs. In particular, the Gaza-Jericho HI-3 highway, which is not yet operational, as well as several checkpoints, as shown in chart 5, to bother the Palestinians, are purely for the benefit of the Israelis. These are some examples of the isolation points used by the Israelis similar to those used during Apartheid in South Africa. Jerusalem has already been isolated from the PA areas and all the crosspoints are controlled by Israel such as in Rafah on the Egyptian border, Jericho on the Jordanian border and Beit Hanoun in Gaza despite the presence of the Palestinian police.

Mr. Christopher added that it had been very important to establish the PA, even though there were some restrictions, in order to understand the process and the criterion by which the process can be assessed. He also explained that there were three main points included in this criterion:

1. The Zionistic settlements in the occupied territories of 1967.

2. The human rights of the Arabs in the occupied territories in Palestine, Syria and Lebanon. There have been several Israeli violations in this respect and it has been a difficult challenge for the Americans to force Israel to obey the United Nations resolutions. Israel has killed, deported and captured thousands of people, destroyed hundreds of houses, closed many institutions and confiscated a lot of land.

3. The Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories of 1967 with slight changes has been the third challenge for the Americans.

Concerning the real perspective of the process, he said that it would not have failed if the designer and the patron had realized the reasons behind this failure in advance. Mr. Christopher pointed out that the U.S. has avoided dealing with this issue so far and emphasized the potential withstanding. Thus, all those who are concerned with this issue should realize the American attitude in the next American elections to achieve real peace, emphasizing the general outline of American policies in the coming four years. Even though these policies have appeased the situation for the time being, they also give Israel more time to become more powerful.

These policies depend on recent diplomatic tactics taken by Washington to continue because the U.S. continues to be the world superpower, given that the Russian role has been reduced and the European role has been rather economic, said Hass. He added that Jerusalem would be the most important issue to impose the final situation and the American hegemony, especially after Congress approved Jerusalem as the unified capital of Israel in the fall of 1995 and the subsequent moving of the American embassy there. Directed by the Zionist lobby, several American research centres began to reinforce this matter and improve the city economically and culturally as shown in the Jerusalem project by Harvard University. Palestinian and Israeli groups met to discuss various matters such as taxes, housing and living quarters, transportation, education, water supply and sewerage in the city, all topics far from the demographical imbalance. Both sides agreed secretly that the city would be the unified capital of Israel provided both Palestinians and Israelis are allowed to live there, however, the percentage of the Palestinians should not exceed 26%. In addition, the Israelis have refused to allow Jerusalem to be the capital for the PA, which has busied itself with trivialities while Israel has been controlling the whole city and decreasing the number of the Arabs, both Muslims and Christians.

Concerning Hebron and the deployment of the forces, the mass media has dealt with this extensively. Mr. Ameen Juweidy, an Arab strategic thinker, explained in his essay, "Israel and the Indirect Approach Strategy" (Al:ahram daily newspaper, 18 November 1996), the Israeli forces have increased the settlements in the West Bank and that there have been indications that three other issues would be imposed on the Arabs: the settlements, the refugees and the borders.

Mr. Ahmed Mukhtar Ambou, a member of the Moroccan Academy and the ex-President of UNESCO, said that Jerusalem represented a political risk in the peace process because of its deep roots of heritage as a linkage between Man and Allah. He presented the idea of religious co-existence saying that it was quite difficult to achieve even though all sides believe in Allah because the history of the city proves that it has been the home of the three main faiths. He traced the prophets and the faiths in the city to illustrate this point. He said that the records of the previous Arab authorities in the city had been destroyed and that Palestinians could not prove their ownership to the land. Given that Jerusalem has already been divided into the Arab quarters and the Jewish quarters, this reality has encouraged the Jews to confiscate more land, even in the Christian quarters. Moreover, Israel has distributed leaflets in Palestine and all over the world proving its ownership of the whole city. He indicated that the Israeli resolution submitted after the 1967 war was refused because it prevented the believers from reaching their Holy Places, which hurt their feelings. The city is of spiritual significance for the whole world. Surveying the problem of archaeological claims by Israel, namely Al:haykal and the Wailing Wall, he said that the political dialogue should look for solutions based on moral and ethical foundations, since the present policy of supremacy and coercion will not last much longer.

Mr. Abdelmajeed Ferian, member of the Moroccan Academy, presented a paper entitled, "Is the International Civilization Able to Overcome the Obstacles of the Peace and Develop the Peace Process?" He pointed out that these obstacles were temporary because they are unnatural conditions against the world unanimity. However, the process definitely should proceed and should not be ignored except by those who are isolated in their cultural and national peculiarities. This can be perceived by applying the following four rules:

1. To understand the common interests in the long run, and ignore the instantaneous utility which may create potential enemies. Generations have already skipped this rule, especially to force others to serve these interests. By applying this rule, rationalism will prevail, more freedom will be available and the traditional plans to consume the revenue to develop the industry of weapons will be diminished, which gives the world a better chance to get rid of the political and economical labyrinths and achieve real development.

2. To understand that the economical power has become multi-axial in the Middle East, which is similar to what has already happened in Japan and China owing to the overpopulation in Asia.

3. To understand that economic competition has interfered with the politics and has made allies from a strategic point of view imposed by the Cold War and the threats by the Eastern communities, then to look for independent and open strategic alternatives.

4. To understand the necessity of giving more significance to the Arab-Islamic world, even though it is difficult (except by the experts) because of the conflicts, starvation, terrorism and barbarity that exist, despite the large number of educated people who are able to develop the region, especially the oil-producing countries.

He talked about the obstacles to peace, emphasizing the psychological obstacles, given that both sides of the conflict are hostile toward each other. It is impossible to achieve real peace unless both parties cease these hostilities and begin reconciliation as happened in South Africa. He added that the obstacles include the people and the land because the whole world agrees that there will be no peace if the settlements and deportations continue and the refugees are not allowed to go back home.

In addition, the water issue remains of equal importance because Israel has been controlling the water resources since 1967 and depriving the original people of their fair share. The war of 1967 was a war over water resources rather than military concerns because Israel has stressed the issue of water resources such as the Jordan River and its branches and the springs of the Golan down to the Dead Sea. They built new dams for irrigation, which made the subject of water such a key issue in deciding the outcome of the peace process. Concerning the psychological obstacles, Mr. Ferian said that the best solution was to establish a Palestinian State with various religions and cultures. However, this solution would take some time to achieve. The least of the solutions at this point is to choose some losses in order to achieve co-existence because the most dangerous obstacle has been the narrow nationalism and the cultural gaps fed by the inherited complexes of the old cultural conflicts. Finally, he said that our world civilization has achieved rational coexistence based on the multi-political parties in the same country, which had been first started by past civilizations.

Mr. Mohammed Al:nabhan, member of the Moroccan Academy, said that it was difficult to suppose any recession in the process because the international charters obliged the parties who signed them. The patrons of peace should comply with its agreements in order to avoid any collapse. There would be some pressure put on Israel by those patrons for it to become more flexible in dealing with the PA and other participants to the peace process. He added that the U.S. would increase this pressure on Israel after the elections, but even this pressure would not be enough to achieve these goals because the Zionist lobby would more than likely justify all Israeli procedures under a pretext of security even though the U.S. is keen on continuing the process since it is the only way to keep the region in touch with U.S. policies. However, the process has been badly affected since the Likud won the majority in the elections. This new era is considered a period of recession, tension and mistrust, even though the process is continuing. However, the next stage will be full of surprises and tension owing to the psychological effect that has been produced as a result of the elections. He expected new reactions in the relationships between Israel and the Palestinians, Arabs and the Palestinians in the Israeli community. These expectations would be the failure of the negotiations, especially those concerning security, the economy and transportation. The Palestinian side has become more cautious of any new agreement, including the necessity of Palestinian unity, the relationship between the PA and its people (who have been so cautious and doubtful of the process), and especially the Palestinian right to establish their own independent State and to return to their homeland. Moreover, all psychological, social and cultural types of normalization should be stopped because they provoke angry attitudes and feelings among the nationals. The growth of extremism in the Arab war against Israeli policies of expansion is due to the doubts about these policies, especially the extremist parties and rabbis. The Zionist plan for expansion and occupation of more land has slowed down, although it has been accepted by the extremists as a basis under the pretext of religious tales and legends.

He also said the way to peace is risky because it requires a firm will, which has already been adopted by the Arabs. The land should not be handed over easily because this land will be restored sooner or later and any process will be rejected unless it is done so through a satisfactory, just and fair manner. The process should not be moved along hastily, but rather the participants should be cautious in order to know what the other party's intentions are. If the Israelis believe in peace, they have to reject all forms of settlement and expansion extremism. Only then will Palestine be the land of peace, love, co-existence and tolerance, with Jerusalem as the home of all believers-Ibrahim's sons-without any discrimination or bigotry.

The Second Session

The second session was held and several papers were presented, including "About the Arab Economy if the Peace Process Fails", by Mr. Jawad Al:anany; "The Development of the Peace Patrons' Attitude in the Middle East", by Mr. George Mady; "The Horizons of Peace between Palestinians and Israelis", by Mr. Mohammed Taj Al:deen Al:huseiny; "The Role of Pragmatism in Solving the Conflict in the Middle East", by Mr. Androu Gromigo; and "The Horizons of Success and the Hypothesis of Failure", ny Mr. Khaled Al:nasry.

Mr. Jawad Al:anany said that the Palestinians were suffering in 1993, according to a report by the World Fund, from and economy plagued by a poor infrastructure and a high rate of unemployment, which forced thousands of Palestinians to adopt a lower standard of living and accept low-paid jobs in Israel. This economy needs $2.2 billion in the form of urgent aid in order to avoid the continuance of this situation and in order to build a socio-economic base for the future. The unemployment rate in 1993 was 40% in Gaza and 25% in the West Bank. The annual deficit was $800 million, which made the Palestinian economy dependent on the Israeli economy. Israel has covered the expenses of the occupation-about $600 million-through the revenues generated by the occupied territories, including foreign money orders sent by Palestinians abroad, aid given by some Arab countries and the income generated by trade with Jordan during the period from 1968 to 1992, which increased by $2.2 billion.

The Israeli economy was negatively affected by the Intifadah. The situation on the Lebanese borders also affected badly the chances of foreign investment in Israel which consisted of only 5%-10% of the total capital in Israel. Despite the high amount of Jewish donations, there were low contributions made to the Israeli economy, which reflects the mistrust of this economy to be objective in the region. The Arab boycott in its three forms made several countries and companies change their minds about direct investment with Israel, despite some shortcomings and faults as shown in a report by Dr. U'ad Bseisou in 1971. Consequently, American diplomats and Troica delegations asked to have the boycott removed, especially the second and the third forms, which had been rejected by both the U.S. and Europe because only the American and European companies had been badly affected, not Israel, who was trying to open new channels with Islamic and oil-producing countries; however, the absence of peace stopped this.

The Jordanian economy suffered a lot in 1988 when the local currency was devalued and the foreign payments deteriorated, which caused Jordan to lose its hard currency reserve, excepting 75% of the gold reserves. The Jordanian dinar (JD) was devalued 50%, and the cost of living went up to 25% in 1989, the highest rate in the 20th century. The annual income per capita decreased from $2,200 to $1,000 and debts increased to $8.3 billion in 1989. The second Gulf war and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait isolated Jordan economically, depriving it from its traditional markets in both these countries. The Aqaba seaport was also badly affected. The average loss was $10 billion. As a result, Jordan was forced to welcome the peace process in order to compensate for those losses. Al:anany pointed out that Jordan had been applying the economic correction policies by cutting down on expenses by 30% in the public sector and 40% in general, in order to reduce the deficit in the budget, to increase competition, to cancel the staple foodstuffs, and to follow the free market policy.

Jordan has made use of the peace process mainly by dealing with emergencies, which had affected its economy as a result of the second Gulf war because the international reaction was faster than the Arab reaction to resume relations with Jordan as they had been before 1 August 1990. The Arab hesitation to resume normal relations was due to three reasons: First, job opportunities for Jordanians and Palestinians had been diminished in the Gulf countries; secondly, financial aid had been stopped since 1989; and thirdly, Jordanian exports to the Gulf countries found substitute markets. It is not impossible to restore this situation, however, it was clear that it would not be as it was before, therefore Jordan had to make use of the peace process with Israel.

The Gulf economy also became dependent on achieving peace so they could produce and export oil more freely and safely, thereby gaining more benefits.

Although the Ramadan war in 1973 had been the first oil shake-up, the quietness that followed the war took the form of rebuilding, keeping the power structure of OPEC together and giving more power to the oil-producing countries and their oil exports. This was changed immediately after the Islamic Revolution in Iran and the first Gulf war, which consumed a lot of money on weapons and equipment, affecting the development plans badly. Oil prices decreased to $7 per barrel in 1986. Everything changed in 1989; more expenses were imposed on the oil-producing countries because of the second Gulf war, and thereafter the Gulf countries began to deal with this issue separately, especially the educational and the employment matters which depend upon the oil yields. He added that if we looked back to 1991 and forward five years from now, we would notice that several Arab countries have achieved remarkable economic growth, especially from those countries that had been suffering before, such as Jordan, Egypt and Syria. However, owing to the lack of peace in the region, other countries achieved little growth since February 1996, most notably the Palestinians.

The matter is rather complicated, and the big question is "Would these achievements have been realized if there had been no peace?" The answer to this question is connected to two factors: the local management and planning, and the substitutes the country would emphasize on in the case of no peace. He stressed that Israel has been benefiting the most as a result of the peace process. Industries such as tourism, foreign investments, new markets, immigration and construction have given rise to more growth for Israel, equal to Palestinian and Jordanian growth combined. In 1995, the total Israeli economic growth was equal to that of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and the PA combined. He answered the question "What would happen if the peace process failed?" by saying that the consequences of this failure would not be the same if the peace process was not started because there was a big difference between the two cases. Also, it is not easy to quit the process after it has been started, and the results of peace are quite different from those in the case of no peace because politics is an impossible art. The process has been started, has achieved some goals and has changed some places, all of which would affect the whole future in the Middle East. He said that it was obvious that most of the Arab and Middle East countries have suffered serious economic crises that are expected to escalate in case the situation does not change. The most serious problems are unemployment, poverty, low productivity, wasting of resources and deficit, excepting the oil-producing countries. Besides, the Arab capital has been moving abroad and becoming an integral part of the world capital, which makes it difficult for these countries to make any significant correction by the turn of this century, except perhaps Saudi Arabia who solved it in advance by creating a new cabinet. If this continued in other countries, nothing would be achieved. We should make use of peace and be more cooperative in order to overcome these crises and make use of the available opportunities through coordination of systems and policies and to be more open in becoming members of some of the international organizations such as WTO and WIPO. Finally, he said that peace was not only to sign papers but also we should take the past, the present and the future into consideration and not be narrow-minded but rather self-confident. It is time to be more democratic and open-minded when dealing with each other and to be in harmony with the new world order through negotiations. If the peace failed, the new world order would deal with the weak countries by taking everything by force, and the situation would be worse and worse, especially desertification and poverty.

Mr. Mohammed Taj Al:deen Al:huseiny presented a paper entitled, "The Horizons of Rescuing the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process." He said that meetings between the two sides had been fruitful given the success of the Madrid conference in 1991, the peace treaty with Jordan in 1994 and the economic conferences in Amman, Cairo and Casablanca whereafter some Arab countries began normalization with Israel. The peace process has stressed UN resolutions 242 and 338 and the principle of land for peace. He added that because the Likud recently took over the Government in Israel, this principle has been altered to reflect peace for security. They are imposing this principle on the Arabs by building more settlements, Judaizing Jerusalem and isolating Arab cities and villages. This negative attitude affected badly the peace process because Israelis have become stricter and more obstinate in the negotiations and have emphasized the marginal issues such as Hebron in order to persuade their allies that Israel has been serving the peace process, even though the negotiations are supposed to deal with 90% of the West Bank. He pointed out that there was more contradiction concerning settlements, which have been the main concern of the new Israeli cabinet. The cabinet is not allowing the refugees the right to return to their homeland, and it has been actively trying to arrange substitute homes in the neighbouring Arab countries because Israel considers the PA as the representative of the people in its bid to establish a Palestinian State. Concerning Jerusalem, he said that it was a controversial issue and cannot be annexed except through negotiations. However, the Likud has ignored this and considers Jerusalem a non-negotiable matter. He inquired about the means to activate the process under this contradictory and mysterious situation saying that there would be no integrated Arab-Islamic strategy, stressing on winning the international power balance in favour of the Arabs to achieve negotiations away from any form of liquidation. He added that it was necessary to restore Arab-Islamic solidarity through regular meetings, use of the Arab boycott, encouragement of the Pan-Islamic conference members to be more active toward the issue of Jerusalem and to combat the threats made by the Zionist lobby in the U.S. as well as to increase the Arab-American influence among the American people. Moreover, it is necessary to win over the support of Japan, Russia and the European community and to connect the Middle East economy with the whole process to convince Israel that peace can only be achieved through just and fair compromise. Finally, he said that these methods are not new but rather just a reminder for the Arabs that there is benefit for them in employing and using their potential.

Mr. Khaled Al:nasry, professor of the socio-economic and legal sciences at King Al:hasan Al:thany university in Casablanca, talked about the horizons of the success and failure hypothesis and the misled process. He pointed out that the region has witnessed four wars: 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973. However, most of the peace initiatives failed except the latest one, which has enabled the Palestinians to achieve the creation of the Palestinian Authority through the PLO, creating in turn a new geopolitical atmosphere in the Middle East. He said that the PA first began in Gaza and Jericho, even though the agreement stressed the coexistence and mutual recognition in order to achieve lasting peace. Therefore certain procedures were implemented to enable the PA to control certain regions. The first security agreement was signed in Cairo on 9 February 1994 concerning the passage issues and another agreement known as "Gaza and Jericho First" was signed on 4 May 1994 regarding the deployment of the Israeli forces and the Palestinian police. He added that the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan stressed five main points, namely the borders, the water of the Jordan and the Yarmouk rivers, the refugees in Jordan, the issue of Jerusalem and the security and normalization. He then talked about the failure of the peace process and how it should be dealt with. Israel has been behind this failure although the process began in 1991 as a result of international leniency toward the Israeli arrogance and conceit. Palestinians are not to blame for this failure because the process concerns all the Arab States and Israel has been so aggressive and obstinate to all objective solutions whereas the Palestinians have been offended by the occupation of their land, by the inability to impose their resolutions on the world community and by their being ready to adopt any compromise. Consequently, the Arabs are not hostile and they do recognize Israel as a State within secure limits through the peace process. The main reasons for this failure have been invented by Israel due to the ideological and political structure of the Israeli community, its absolute dependence on the U.S. and the international climate.

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