Israel's worst nightmare: Demography

~EXCERPTS~

"By comparison, in 2000, more than 60,000 immigrants came to Israel. On the assumption that the number of people leaving the country is no smaller than average, which is about 20,000 a year (though some, luckily, do return after a few years), we've reached the state of negative immigration. The number of immigrants is smaller than the number of emigrants away from Israel."

"It must be admitted. Immigration is the only reason that we still have a firm Jewish majority inside the state of Israel."

"The Arabs have a clear demographic advantage. The natural growth of the Arabs is twice that of the Jews. True, Israeli Arabs remain steady at 20 percent of the population, but nearly a third of the Israeli babies born last year were Arabs."

"It's already known that by the end of the decade, or perhaps earlier, there will be an Arab majority between the sea and the river. . If we don't reach a political agreement by then, Israel will be ruling more Arabs than Jews..."

"But look another step forward, to the day there won't be a Jewish majority inside the borders of the state of Israel-and that day will arrive"

"It won't happen in a year or two, but there's a reasonable chance that if current trends continue, sometime in the first half of the century Israel inside the Green Line will cease to be a Jewish state"

Maariv: PLO & Hamas Thrilled over Trends in Israel

6/26/03

Yoav Keren, in Maariv, says the real danger to Israel is the demographic problem: "Arafat and Yassin had a few moments of pleasure when they received the morning press summary from Israel. A not very large news item, which appeared this week in the inner pages, announced their patience is paying off. Their vision of the Greater Land of Palestine, from the sea to the river, is coming true-slowly, quietly, without any large headlines and without radio news bulletins. But it's happening. The news item reported that there was a dramatic decline in the number of immigrants to Israel since the start of the armed conflict with the Palestinians. Since the start of this year, it said, fewer than 8,000 immigrants arrived, and barely 15,000 will arrive by the end of the year. By comparison, in 2000, more than 60,000 immigrants came to Israel. On the assumption that the number of people leaving the country is no smaller than average, which is about 20,000 a year (though some, luckily, do return after a few years), we've reached the state of negative immigration. The number of immigrants is smaller than the number of emigrants away from Israel.

It must be admitted. Immigration is the only reason that we still have a firm Jewish majority inside the state of Israel. The Arabs have a clear demographic advantage. The natural growth of the Arabs is twice that of the Jews. True, Israeli Arabs remain steady at 20 percent of the population, but nearly a third of the Israeli babies born last year were Arabs. And as if that weren't enough, tens of thousands of Palestinians have crossed the Green Line in recent years and settled in the Negev, the Triangle and the Galilee. Hundreds of Palestinian women are 'imported' every year from the Hebron area by Negev Bedouin for marriage. Thus, while the Americans are trying to convince us to include the right of return in the roadmap the right of return is happening de facto. In other words, the slowdown in immigration is a demographic blow and it's unlikely that many are aware of its implications.

It's already known that by the end of the decade, or perhaps earlier, there will be an Arab majority between the sea and the river. If we don't reach a political agreement by then, Israel will be ruling more Arabs than Jews. But look another step forward, to the day there won't be a Jewish majority inside the borders of the state of Israel-and that day will arrive. It won't happen in a year or two, but there's a reasonable chance that if current trends continue, sometime in the first half of the century Israel inside the Green Line will cease to be a Jewish state. That forecast, which many researchers accept, should keep the decision makers awake at night.

But the average politician is used to planning 48 hours ahead at most, until the next terror attack or assassination. Who cares what will be here in another 30 or 50 years.

But it should be of interest and it should be of concern. If we put our head in the sand, it won't stop the demographic hourglass. If the prime minister doesn't want his grandchildren to live as a minority in an Arab majority, he should wake up right now. He needs to understand that immigrants won't come to Israel to die in buses or nightclubs blowing up, nor to work as guards at malls for low wages. He must recognize that without a real separation fence, a real border, masses of Palestinians will continue to de facto fulfill the right of return, from Sakhnin in the north to Tel Sheva in the south. And most important, he should internalize-if he hasn't already done so-that the territories are not a strategic asset, but a ticking demographic bomb. He needs to understand that-not for the Palestinians, but for us.